Premier League Preview - 1st-2nd October 2011
There are massive derbies at the beginning and end of this weekend's action, while in between Manchester United and Manchester City will jostle for superiority at the top of the table.
In the middle of the table a derby in West London between Fulham and Queens Park Rangers. Martin Jol's Cottagers are the only team without a victory in the Premier League this season and would love to break that duck in their first match against QPR since 2001. QPR will be equally determined not to let that happen and are in buoyant mood after performing well since Tony Fernandes' takeover.
It is already shaping up to be a fascinating 2011/12 Premier League campaign but every team in the division will be looking to learn from what they have done in the opening few games and push on to better things.
The likes of Bolton, West Brom and Blackburn may be the most desperate for points as they strive to pull clear of trouble, but others in mid-table will also be looking up rather than down.
Saturday
1st October
12:45 - Everton (11) v Liverpool (5) - Sky 2
It has been a while since these two drew at Goodison Park but with neither holding outstanding claims currently, the stalemate at 23/10 could be the way to go on this occasion.
Liverpool have shown flashes this season to suggest they are top four material but it has been sporadic and mostly centered around Luis Suarez as they try and integrate their summer signings. The striker looks a special player despite his little strop after beng substituted last week in the win over Wolves - he is only going to improve as he adapts to the English game.
This will be a good test for him as Everton dealt pretty well with the similar Sergio Aguero although they eventually buckled against Manchester City in their last outing. David Moyes and his side will continue to grind out the results in resilient fashion but squad depth will mean they'll need to remain disciplined and get every ounce out of the players available.
Defeats on the road at Stoke and Tottenham are a stark highlight of Liverpool's deficiencies at the moment but this has the look of two evenly matched teams currently and the points are set to be shared.
Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard may have to settle for a place on the bench again in the 216th Merseyside derby. The England midfielder has played just 25 minutes after a six-month lay-off from a groin operation. Defenders Glen Johnson (hamstring) and Daniel Agger (rib) will not feature - although the latter has returned to training - while forward Dirk Kuyt is pushing for a recall at the expense of Jordan Henderson.
Everton manager David Moyes believes Tim Cahill should be fit. Cahill sustained severe bruising to his shin after seemingly being stamped on by Vincent Kompany during the 2-0 defeat by Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium last weekend.
Last season: Liverpool 2 Everton 2, Everton 2 Liverpool 0
Last five league matches: Everton L W D W L; Liverpool W W L L W
Top scorers: Victor Anichebe, Leighton Baines, Royston Drenthe, Marouane Fellaini, Phil Jagielka, Phil Neville, Leon Osman & Apostolos Vellios (Everton) 1; Luis Suarez (Liverpool) 4
Referee: Martin Atkinson.
15:00 - Aston Villa (8) v Wigan (15)
Villa are this season's draw specialists so far and five of their last six Premier League games have ended in stalemate. Alex McLeish was forced to give them a rocket at half-time in the match at QPR where he described their performance was insipid and that the players looked low on confidence.
He should be boosted this week by the possible return of five regulars, including frontman Darren Bent following a groin problem. Villa were certainly much better in the second period at Loftus Road and McLeish is now demanding a similar display but over the full 90 minutes. They are a best price of 4/6 to see off a Wigan side that was unbeaten after three games but has now lost four on the trot in all competitions.
They left themselves too much to do against Tottenham last week after a poor first half but Roberto Martinez was delighted with their application after the break which almost grabbed a point. Martinez might have a bit of a point to prove having turned down the job at Villa Park in the summer while he will be keen to keep the shackles on Charlie N'Zogbia, who did depart the DW Stadium.
There are plenty of questions marks over the two and the home side should just prevail - but I wouldn't bet on it.
On-loan Tottenham midfielder Jermaine Jenas is in contention to make his Aston Villa debut after recovering from a thigh problem. Record signing Darren Bent has shaken off a groin injury while fellow striker Emile Heskey is also in the frame after a recent hamstring setback. Villa boss Alex McLeish will give a late fitness test to defender James Collins who suffered an ankle knock against QPR last weekend. Carlos Cuellar, Chris Herd and Eric Lichaj remain sidelined.
Wigan defender Emmerson Boyce is close to a recall having recovered from the hamstring problem which has kept him out of the last two league matches. His return would be welcome as Steve Gohouri is suspended having been sent off against Tottenham last week. Fellow defender Antolin Alcaraz (thigh) and striker Hugo Rodallega (knee) are unavailable.
Last season: Aston Villa 1 Wigan 1, Wigan 1 Aston Villa 2
Last five league matches: Aston Villa W D D D D; Wigan D W L L L
Top scorers: Gabriel Agbonlahor (Aston Villa) 3; Franco Di Santo (Wigan) 3
Referee: Mark Clattenburg (Tyne & Wear).
15.00 - Blackburn (18) v Man City (2)
Blackburn were readily outpointed a week ago against Newcastle and will be looking forward to a return to Ewood Park, where they'd previously enjoyed a fabulously productive week by scoring seven against Arsenal and Leyton Orient combined.
Over the past two seasons they've gained results against Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal at home so although they're one of the league's weaker sides on paper and lack consistency, they are able to raise their game at times.
However, it's worth noting that during the same spell City have gained maximum points from visits to Ewood Park and have done so without conceding. Certainly, they won't allow Blackburn the freedom that Arsenal did and despite hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week they're worthy 8/13 favourites with the layers.
A Munich hangover is possible though so we wouldn't expect City to fly out of the traps and 6/4 about them leading at half-time and going on to win makes little appeal. If pushed, we'd take William Hill's 18/5 about the sides going in level before City take maximum points but it's a price that looks no more than fair.
Similar comments apply to the 11/10 about Edin Dzeko finding the net. Six of his seven goals this season have come away from home and he scored the only goal in this fixture last term, but whether Mancini decides to start with him after Tuesday's events remains in to be seen and we advise that those interested wait until the team-sheet is handed out.
Blackburn manager Steve Kean is still waiting on the fitness of defenders Scott Dann and Michel Salgado ahead of the visit of Manchester City. Neither player has trained this week and the pair will undergo late tests to determine whether they will be able to face City at Ewood Park. Martin Olsson is definitely out through suspension following his red card at Newcastle but Gael Givet has recovered from a knock.
City boss Roberto Mancini may give Edin Dzeko a starting role after the striker apologised for his angry reaction to being substituted against Bayern Munich in midweek. With Carlos Tevez suspended by the club following his apparent refusal to come off the bench in Munich, the Bosnian is likely to partner Sergio Aguero in attack.
Last season: Blackburn 0 Man City 1, Man City 1 Blackburn 1
Last five league matches: Blackburn L L D W L; Man City W W W D W
Top scorers: Ruben Rochina (Blackburn) 4; Sergio Aguero (Man City) 8
Referee: Phil Dowd (Staffordshire).
15:00 - Man Utd (1) v Norwich (9)
Come kick-off on Saturday it'll be almost 18 months to the day since United's last home defeat, which came courtesy of Chelsea. Since then they've played 23 games in the Barclays Premier League at Old Trafford, winning 22 of them and scoring 70 goals.
With 16 conceded that works out at an average winning margin of almost 2.5 goals, which in itself is a remarkable statistic. It is one that received an early boost this year thanks to their 8-2 mauling of Arsenal and a 3-1 win over Chelsea last time, albeit one that flattered Sir Alex Ferguson's side.
The same can perhaps be said of Tuesday's 3-3 draw with Basel, who squandered several chances to gain an unassailable lead before succumbing to a late equaliser, and they'll need to defend better to keep their record going. Norwich meanwhile arrive boosted by Monday night's 2-0 win over Sunderland.
While the visitors had plenty of the ball, Norwich deserved to take all three points and a return of eight from 18 available so far this season is more than respectable. Confidence will be high already, before manager Paul Lambert reminds his players that Norwich won the last meeting of these sides in 2005. With several changes set to be made including the return of Javier Hernandez, our feeling is that United are impossible to oppose, even with Norwich 20/1 with Stan James.
However, recent history suggests that they may not be resounding victors. In four of their six matches immediately after a Champions League group clash last term the Red Devils won by a solitary goal, something they've done in three of their last four Old Trafford encounters with Norwich. At 4/1 with Stan James we're certainly tempted to side with a one goal winning margin for the hosts, but the prospect of a big performance given how lacklustre United were on Tuesday means we'll sit this one out.
Wayne Rooney, Javier Hernandez and Jonny Evans will all be back from injury for Manchester United. Chris Smalling (groin), Nemanja Vidic (ankle) and Tom Cleverly (foot) are still missing but could return after the international break.
Norwich will be without striker James Vaughan, who is set to be out for up to four months with a knee injury. Centre-back Zak Whitbread is still recovering from his hamstring problem. Defenders Elliott Ward and Dani Ayala (both knee) remain out, while young forward Oli Johnson is set for a spell on the sidelines after ankle surgery.
Last season: No corresponding fixture
Last five league matches: Man Utd W W W W D; Norwich D L L W W
Top scorers: Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) 9; Leon Barnett, Ritchie De Laet, Grant Holt, Wesley Hoolahan, Bradley Johnson, Steve Morison & Anthony Pilkington (Norwich) 1
Referee: Stuart Attwell (Warwickshire).
15:00 - Sunderland (14) v West Brom (19)
To describe this week as turbulent for Sunderland boss Steve Bruce would be a gross understatement. First came a 2-0 defeat at Norwich, one that leaves the Black Cats just a point above the relegation zone, then came the news that Titus Bramble has been suspended having been released on police bail on Wednesday evening.
Saturday's game will mark a welcome return to football matters, but whether West Brom are entirely welcome visitors is another matter. On the face of it they're a side with problems of their own, languishing as they do in 19th position following an uninspiring 0-0 draw with Fulham last weekend.
However, Roy Hodgson's side did the double over Sunderland last season so will arrive knowing they have what it takes to heap more misery on the home side. A feature of recent meetings has been goals, with 13 in the last four games between the sides, and with West Brom having almost a full complement to pick from and Sunderland without Bramble, it wouldn't surprise us were a continuation of that trend on the cards.
However, instead of taking a short price in the total goals markets we'll have 7/1 on Peter Odemwingie scoring first. The Nigerian striker did so in both matches last year and his sole goal this term came away at Norwich. Roy Hodgson says he expects Odemwingie's partnership with Shane Long to begin to flourish as they get more game time together and a visit to the Stadium Of Light may allow them to advertise their unquestionable scoring talents.
Sunderland defender Titus Bramble will miss Saturday's clash after being suspended by the club. The 30-year-old will not train or play with his team-mates until an investigation into allegations of sexual assault and possession of a class A drug has been completed. Midfielder Sebastian Larsson has been playing after having pain-killing injections in a broken toe and his condition will be assessed, while striker Connor Wickham (groin) is a doubt and Craig Gordon and Fraizer Campbell (both knee) continue to work their way back to fitness.
West Brom central defender Gabriel Thomas is available after completing a three-game suspension. But he faces a battle to regain his place following an impressive performance by summer signing Gareth McAuley in last weekend's goalless home draw with Fulham. Defender Craig Dawson is expected to recover from the illness which meant he was unable to train on Thursday, but midfielder Zoltan Gera and striker Marc-Antoine Fortune are still sidelined through injury.
Last season: Sunderland 2 West Brom 3, West Brom 1 Sunderland 0
Last five league matches: Sunderland L D L W L; West Brom L L W L D
Top scorers: Sebastian Larsson (Sunderland) 2; Marc-Antoine Fortune & Shane Long (West Brom) 2
Referee: Lee Mason (Lancashire).
15:00 - Wolves (12) v Newcastle (4)
Mick McCarthy's Wolves side started this season in scintillating form, taking seven points from a possible nine in their first three games. Since then, they've lost three-from-three and although two of those came against Liverpool and Tottenham, there's no denying that performances haven't matched the standards set early on.
Their lack of a reliable goalscorer remains evident, particularly with Sylvain Ebanks-Blake on the sidelines, and that's going to be a problem against a Newcastle side who've enjoyed their best start to a Premier League campaign since 1994. Credit must go to Alan Pardew, who was far from a popular appointment when Chris Hughton was sent packing.
He's scoured Europe to find the talent required to stabilise the club and has done a fine job, picking up Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabeye from under the noses of some illustrious rivals. Highly-regarded Davide Santon is another recruit hoping to make an impact having emerged unscathed from a midweek reserve game and if he lives up to the billing the hole left by Jose Enrique's departure to Liverpool will be quickly plugged.
A feature of their unbeaten start to the season has been a visible unity in the squad, personified by a midweek paintballing outing, and that's arguably justification behind the departure of Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton, particularly the latter. Whatever the case, Newcastle should once again prove hard to break down and a relatively tight affair is on the cards. This fixture ended 1-1 last term, as it had the previous time these sides met at Molineux, and at 6/1 that's a scoreline that will have its backers.
However, given the sides' respective fortunes of late the 23/20 on offer with William Hill about Newcastle in the draw no bet market looks very good value - they're odds-on elsewhere - and we'll bank on the visitors remaining unbeaten.
Defender Richard Stearman is Wolves' major new fitness doubt. Stearman suffered a toe injury during the 2-1 defeat against Liverpool at Anfield and was substituted at half-time. If he is ruled out, 19-year-old Matt Doherty will start against the Magpies. Striker Steven Fletcher has recovered from the groin problem which restricted him to a second-half substitute role against the Reds. Jody Craddock, Ronald Zubar, Kevin Foley and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake are still unavailable through injury.
Davide Santon will be included in the Newcastle squad for the first time. The 20-year-old Italian played 90 minutes for the reserves in midweek after having fluid drained from his knee and could make his senior debut at Molineux. However, striker Shola Ameobi will miss out once again with a shoulder injury, while Alan Smith (hamstring) and Mike Williamson (broken arm) remain on the sidelines.
Last season: Newcastle 4 Wolves 1, Wolves 1 Newcastle 1
Last five league matches: Wolves W D L L L; Newcastle W W D D W
Top scorers: Sylvan Ebanks-Blake & Steven Fletcher (Wolves) 2; Demba Ba & Leon Best (Newcastle) 3
Referee: Mark Halsey (Lancashire).
Sunday
2nd October
13:30 - Bolton (20) v Chelsea (3) Sky 1
Basement boys Bolton play host to Chelsea in the first of four Premier League fixtures on Sunday having yet to register a point in front of their own fans. The loss of Johan Elmander hasn't yet been accounted for, with David Ngog yet to prove he's capable of bettering the Swede's 12 goals last term and Ivan Klasnic remaining hard to predict despite already edging towards last season's meagre tally.
Throw in uncharacteristic defensive errors and the immediate future looks bleak, although fans should be confident that under Owen Coyle's astute leadership they will still be playing top-flight football next season. Visitors Chelsea have adopted a new approach under Andre Villas-Boas, with the emphasis now on getting after their opponents both home and away.
This was in evidence once more on Wednesday night when only a very soft penalty gave Valencia a lifeline at the Mestalla and we're encouraged by the fact that they were unbeaten in games that followed Champions League away days last season. They'll pose plenty of problems for Bolton, especially as goals have come from everywhere this term, and with that in mind we fancy them to take maximum points.
Chelsea have won on their last eight visits to the Reebok and have not conceded a single goal in that period, which points towards Sky Bet's 15/8 about them winning to nil. However, with their new style also paving the way for opponents to create more chances, we'll take a slightly shorter price about Chelsea giving Bolton a goal start and winning. It's a bet that would've paid out in six of the last eight renewals of this fixture and at 6/4 we're happy to bank on number seven.
Bolton manager Owen Coyle is already without a number of long-term injured, with the casualty list compounded this week when it was announced midfielder Stuart Holden faces another six months on the sidelines with a knee problem. To add to his woes, on-loan Gael Kakuta is ineligible as he cannot face his parent club, David Wheater and Ivan Klasnic are suspended, and goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen is doubtful with a leg knock.
Daniel Sturridge could return to the Chelsea line-up. The forward missed Saturday's win over Swansea with a knee injury and also sat out Wednesday night's Champions League draw at Valencia, but he is fit to return to the club where he spent the second half of last season on loan. Fernando Torres starts a three-match ban, goalkeeping understudy Hilario is still a week or two away from recovering from hip and back complaints, while Michael Essien (knee) is a long-term absentee.
Last season: Bolton 0 Chelsea 4, Chelsea 1 Bolton 0
Last five league matches: Bolton L L L L L; Chelsea W W W L W
Top scorers: Ivan Klasnic (Bolton) 3; Frank Lampard, Romelu Lukaku, Juan Mata, Ramires & Fernando Torres (Chelsea) 2
Referee: Peter Walton (Northamptonshire).
15:00 - Fulham (17) v QPR (10)
Fulham ended their five-match draw streak with a 2-0 win over Odense in the Europa League on Thursday night but we want to oppose them on Sunday.
When Fulham last played in the Europa League two seasons ago they lost three and drew three from six Premier League games immediately after a Europa League match and that trend is continuing this season.
They have failed to win in the Premier League after all their Europa League games this season and lost to Newcastle after their sole away trip in Europe since the PL season started. QPR have impressed on their travels, winning at Everton and Wolves, and they look a big price at 3/1 here.
However, that's because Fulham are a very solid outfit at home. They only lost four times in the league at Craven Cottage last season and have drawn all three home encounters so far this campaign.
We want to get with QPR - they have looked pretty slick with Joey Barton in the team - but will take the safety-net approach of backing them at 15/8 at Stan James in the draw-no-bet market.
QPR defender Armand Traore is supended following his red card against Aston Villa last weekend. Danny Gabbidon looks certain to miss out again with a knee injury picked up in Rangers' Barclays Premier League win over Wolves almost a fortnight ago, while the game comes soon for Jamie Mackie, who this week played in a friendly for the first time since suffering a double leg break in January. Midfielder Kieron Dyer also remains sidelined with a foot problem.
Fulham forwards Bobby Zamora and Mousa Dembele are both available after recovering from illness. The Cottagers will give Aaron Hughes (knee) a fitness test and Matthew Briggs is also a doubt with a bruised ankle that he suffered in last night's Europa League win against Odense.
Last season: No corresponding fixture
Last five league matches: Fulham L L D D D; QPR W L D W D
Top scorers: Andrew Johnson, Danny Murphy, Bryan Ruiz & Bobby Zamora (Fulham) 4; Joey Barton, DJ Campbell, Alejandro Faurlin & Tommy Smith (QPR) 1
Referee: Andre Marriner.
15:00 - Swansea (16) v Stoke (7)
In contrast to Fulham, Stoke have performed well after their Europa League games this season - their 4-0 defeat at Sunderland apart! That horror result came after their trip to Dynamo Kiev so we'll let them off that one as they have coped well with their Thursday-Sunday routine otherwise.
They have had two other games after playing in the Europa League so far, both away from home and both at promoted clubs after drawing at Norwich and winning at West Brom. Here they travel to Swansea who finally got their season up and running with a 3-0 win over West Brom but for the most part they have looked pretty average.
I foresee a season of struggle for them and am of the opinion they have been a tad fortunate to get the five points they have collected so far - their woodwork has been struck seven times to give you an idea of how they just seem to be hanging on in games. Stoke are a much better team and as they played at home on Thursday night and given the improvements they've made to their squad this season they should be able to cope with backing up in Swansea. William Hill offer 19/10 about Tony Pulis' side and that looks too good to pass up.
Midfielder Leon Britton is the major fitness concern for Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers. Britton is still struggling with the back complaint that saw him withdrawn early against Chelsea last weekend. Striker Danny Graham could come back into the starting line-up in place of Leroy Lita but midfielder Ferrie Bodde is set to undergo yet another operation in the latest setback to his recovery from a series of knee injuries.
Stoke winger Matthew Etherington will undergo a fitness test ahead of the match. Etherington limped out of last night's 2-1 Europa League Group E victory over Besiktas with a dead leg. Defender Jonathan Woodgate is available again having missed that game because he is not part of Stoke's squad for Europe, and the rested Asmir Begovic is set to return in goal in place Thomas Sorensen.
Last season: No corresponding fixture
Last five league matches: Swansea D D L W L; Stoke D W W L D
Top scorers: Nathan Dyer, Leroy Lita, Scott Sinclair & Ashley Williams (Swansea) 1; Kenwyne Jones (Stoke) 3
Referee: Mike Jones (Cheshire).
16:00 - Tottenham (6) v Arsenal (13) - Sky1
I can't find any odds on Emmanuel Adebayor tearing down the pitch to celebrate in front of the Arsenal fans so we'll just have to stick to the conventional markets in this one.
The Gunners might appeal to some at 13/5 after notching three wins in eight days but they were all at home and were all against opposition they would have been expected to beat. Edging past Shrewsbury and Olympiakos with a solid win over 10-man Bolton in between hardly suggests they are anywhere near their best and their defence remains an area of real concern.
Conceding four at Blackburn on their last away trip was shambolic and if they defend with similar levels of competence against Spurs they will be in for a hiding. Tottenham had a really tough start to the season when they were beaten by both Manchester teams during the transfer window but they kept hold of Luka Modric and have improved since.
Wins over Wolves, Liverpool and Wigan have propelled them into the top six and at odds-against they would be the bet if we were pushed. But at 6/5, the bookies seem to have it about right and we'll sit this one out.
Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp will revert to his first-choice line-up meaning Emmanuel Adebayor is in line to face his former club. Redknapp, who made 10 changes to his team for yesterday's Europa League win over Shamrock Rovers, will give Aaron Lennon a fitness test after he had to come off with a stiff groin last night. William Gallas (calf), Michael Dawson (Achilles) and Tom Huddlestone (ankle) are out but Steven Pienaar is available to play his first game of the season after overcoming a groin problem.
Arsenal will give late fitness tests to England winger Theo Walcott (knee) and Gervinho (hamstring), but central defender Laurent Koscielny (ankle) is out. Johan Djourou (hamstring) also remains sidelined but Yossi Benayoun (thigh) and Sebastien Squillaci both return to the squad after training this weekend.
Last season: Tottenham 3 Arsenal 3, Arsenal 2 Tottenham 3
Last five league matches: Tottenham L L W W W; Arsenal L L W L W
Top scorers: Emmanuel Adebayor & Jermain Defoe (Tottenham) 3; Robin van Persie (Arsenal) 5
Referee: Mike Dean (Wirral).
Source Ben Coley Dave John and Ben Linfoot at BettingZone SkySports