CHELSEA v ARSENAL
Even if their team has a big lead with time running out Chelsea fans won't
rest until the final whistle goes. An 89th minute winner from the unlikely
boot of Nigel Winterburn four years ago saw Arsenal snatch a 3-2 victory
and two years later that scoreline was repeated in even more bizarre circumstances
after an extraordinary hat-trick by Kanu in the last 15 minutes. Memories
of those two defeats seemed to weigh on Chelsea again last season when,
2-0 up with 14 minutes left, Arsenal pulled one back through Thierry Henry
and snatched a point from a wonder strike from Silvinho. Arsenal's poor
away form dogged them in the last campaign but after their 4-0 win at Middlesbrough
on the opening day of the season they will be confident of putting one over
Chelsea again. In Robert Pires, the Gunners have one of the best midfielders
in the country at present and his surging runs and penetrative passing could
make the difference although that is counter-balanced by the loss of Patrick
Vieira, who serves a one match ban. I'll take Arsenal to nick it and I expect
there to be goals.
Verdict: 1-2
DERBY v WEST HAM
Despite taking just one point from six, West Ham's performances against
Liverpool and Leeds have been better than many Hammers fans could have imagined
after the troublesome close season which saw Harry Redknapp depart and Glenn
Roeder promoted from youth coach to first-team boss. But with Paulo Di Canio
showing plenty of early-season verve, the Hammers will be confident of grabbing
their first win of the season at Derby. Jim Smith's side have four points
in the bag after a home win over Blackburn on the opening day and a brave
point at Fulham last time out. But in between they looked distinctly second
best in a 3-1 defeat at Ipswich. Much will depend on what strikeforce Smith
can put out. Scoring goals was their big problem last season and Smith's
shrewd summer purchase of Fabrizio Ravanelli has already paid off with the
Italian netting in his first two starts. It's no coincidence that he was
absent with a back injury when they drew a blank at Fulham so his return
improves Derby's chances considerably so I'll take the draw.
Verdict: 1-1
LEEDS v BOLTON
Hats off to Bolton for their fantastic start to the season but expect reality
to kick in at Elland Road on Saturday. Bolton got off to a flyer with their
5-0 mauling of hapless Leicester and they rode that momentum with home wins
over Middlesbrough and, more surprisingly, Liverpool. Dean Holdsworth's
last-minute winner over the Anfield men, which appears to have dealt a killer
blow to Sander Westerveld's Liverpool career, was a classic example of fortune
favouring an in-form team, but it may be a different story at Leeds. David
O'Leary's men have banked seven points from nine, including an excellent
win at Arsenal, and could turn out to be the early-season pacesetters with
no Champions League distractions. Although they had trouble putting away
teams like Bolton at home last term, the return to full fitness of Harry
Kewell gives them an added creative spark which can be crucial when rivals
pack men behind the ball. Bolton have enjoyed recent success at Elland Road
– a 1-0 win in 1996/7 – but the Leeds team that day included the
likes of Lukic, Deane, Beesley, Palmer, Brolin and Worthington. United's
current crop are on a different planet talentwise, and even though Leeds
are without Lee Bowyer and Danny Mills and have a doubt over Nigel Martyn,
a home win is the call.
Verdict: 2-0
LEICESTER v IPSWICH
Leicester have won the only two Premiership meetings between the two at
Filbert Street but Ipswich must have a golden chance of taking the three
points on Saturday. Peter Taylor's rapid decline from hero to zero leaves
his position as manager in a precarious state and it's doubtful the Leicester
hierarchy can sit through another defeat without bringing down the axe.
The Foxes lost nine of their last 10 Premiership matches last season and
have lost their first two games of the new campaign - including the opening
day 5-0 thrashing by newly-promoted Bolton. And Taylor's hopes of survival
aren't helped by a crippling injury list which has forced him to draft five
teenagers into the first team squad. Ipswich may have suffered two defeats
in their opening three games, but they showed enough quality in the 3-1
home win over Derby to suggest they can hammer another nail in Taylor's
coffin. They were superb away from home last season and a visit to ailing
Leicester can kick-start another profitable season on the road.
Verdict: 0-2
LIVERPOOL v ASTON VILLA
Reds fans are set to get their first glimpse of new goalkeeper Jerzy Dudek
unless, of course, they watched him ship four goals against Belarus in midweek.
But even if Dudek suffers an unhappy debut the chances are that it won't
matter – Liverpool will score more goals at the other end. All England's
seven goals against Germany and Albania came from Liverpool players with
Michael Owen hitting new highs with his treble in Munich although the best
of the bunch was probably Robbie Fowler's clincher at St. James Park. Ominously
for John Gregory, both strikers have a fantastic record against Villa, with
Owen netting a hat-trick in Liverpool's 3-1 home win last season. After
the shock defeat at Bolton the Reds will be desperate to bank three points
to get in amongst the leaders and even though Villa came within seconds
of taking the scalp of a slow-starting Manchester United they will have
a harder task at one of their least profitable grounds. Gregory, who struck
another blow for manager-player relations by branding Gareth Barry a “pretty
boy” this week, will probably come for a point but expect Owen and
Fowler to shoot the Villains down.
Verdict: 2-0
MAN UTD v EVERTON
Leaders Everton – two words that rarely appear side by side –
will aim to prove that their fast start to the season is no fluke. Manchester
United, meanwhile, will be keen to show that all is well in the house of
Old Trafford after the Jaap Stam controversy and the sloppy defending which
has resulted in four dropped points in their last two starts. Traditionally,
this has been a home banker with United winning seven of the last eight
although the Toffees were unlucky last season when the two teams were only
separated by an unfortunate Steve Watson own goal. Everton's one success
at Old Trafford in recent memory came in the first season of the Premiership
when they scored a shock 3-0 win. That, as with their 2-2 draw four years
ago, came right at the start of the season so they will hope they can reap
some reward again before United are fully into their stride. Another ray
of hope for the Blues is that United will have the bulk of their squad returning
from World Cup duty – many having played twice in five days. I'm still
going for a home win but if Duncan Ferguson gets in Laurent Blanc's face
he could make the Frenchman's United debut extremely uncomfortable and Everton
could just emerge as this weekend's coupon busters.
Verdict: 2-1
MIDDLESBROUGH v NEWCASTLE
It's a second north-east derby on the trot for Newcastle after they had
the better of a 1-1 draw with Sunderland at St James Park last time out.
And they have to fancy themselves to get the job done this time. Bobby Robson's
men are clearly top dogs in this fixture having won three and drawn two
of their five Premiership visits to the Riverside. And they visit a Middlesbrough
side who sit second from bottom after starting the new season with three
straight defeats. New boss Steve McLaren isn't panicking but he knows now
that Boro haven't struggled for the last few years for nothing. He will
desperately be hoping Alen Boksic will be passed fit although he remains
no more than 50-50 and didn't play any part in Croatia's two World Cup qualifiers.
Including their early-season Intertoto campaign, which failed on goal difference
at the final hurdle, the Magpies are unbeaten over eight competitive games
this season. So the two options look the draw or a Newcastle win. Given
the Magpies' impressive record at the Riverside and the probable return
of Alan Shearer, the 13/8 away win gets the nod.
Verdict: 1-2
SUNDERLAND v BLACKBURN
Peter Reid wasn't happy with his side's football after they hung on grimly
for a draw in the north-east derby against Newcastle at St James' Park.
And he will demand a much improved display for the visit of newly-promoted
Blackburn. Blackburn have understandably been denied column inches by the
100% start of Lancashire rivals Bolton but they too have plenty of reason
to be proud of their opening to the season. After a 2-1 defeat at Derby,
Rovers hit back with an enterprising 2-2 draw against Manchester United
and followed it with a 2-1 win over Spurs. Graeme Souness will have been
particularly pleased with the performances of Damien Duff and Keith Gillespie
– two huge talents who would be devastating if they could add consistency
– and if his team can stay solid at the back a mid-table finish is
certainly attainable. Surprisingly these two have shared just one season
in the Premiership so you have to go back to the 1996/7 season to find Sunderland's
last home game against Blackburn - a 0-0 draw at Roker Park. A stalemate
looks a decent call again.
Verdict: 1-1
FIXED ODDS VERDICT
The best bet of the weekend looks an Ipswich win at Leicester.
The Foxes have lost 12 of their last 13 games counting back to the end of
last season and they go into Saturday's match with a crippling injury list
and confidence at an all-time low.
Ipswich were one of the best away sides in the Premiership last season and
this looks the perfect chance for them to get the ball rolling again.
They are great value at 5/4 but even though we may be slightly greedy here
it's worth really putting the boot in and backing an Ipswich/Ipswich HT/FT
double result at 7/2 with Paddy Power.
Elsewhere, Liverpool, Manchester United and Leeds look the bankers but if
their international players are fatigued there may be a shock awaiting one
of the three.
However there is one bet in the Liverpool v Aston Villa clash that appeals.
Without doubt John Gregory will tell his defenders to watch Michael Owen
like a hawk, not just because of his heroics for England but because he
scored a first-half hat-trick in this fixture last year.
But if the visitors become obsessed with stopping Owen the way could be
paved for another Villa tormentor, Robbie Fowler.
Fowler has a fantastic record against the midlanders and goes into Saturday's
match on a high after a superb goal against Albania in midweek.
Interestingly, when Fowler came on, the chances fell his way rather than
Owen's - perhaps a sign that he wasn't being watched as closely.
And if Villa take their eye off him for a second he could punish them. A
first goalscorer punt on Fowler looks well worth it at a freely available
9/2.
SPREADS VERDICT
The best spread bet on Saturday could be a buy of the goals at 2.8 in the
Chelsea-Arsenal clash at Stamford Bridge.
Traditionally this is a fixture full of goals and the evidence this season
suggests that both sides look stronger in attack than defence.
The last five meetings between the two at Stamford Bridge have produced
scorelines of 0-3, 2-3, 0-0, 2-3 and 2-2 for goal make-ups of 3,5,0,5,4.
This season Arsenal have hit four against Middlesbrough (away) and Leicester
(home) and have looked excellent going forward.
Robert Pires and Thierry Henry give the side tremendous pace and are a huge
threat on the break against anyone.
Even though the Gunners have conceded just two goals, they don't look watertight
by any means with Sol Campbell (who looked far from convincing for England)
still finding his feet.
They will also lack the defensive shield given by Patrick Vieira on Saturday
as the Frenchman serves a one-match ban.
That news will be welcomed in the Chelsea camp who, in the form of Jimmy
Floyd Hasselbaink, possess one of the most prolific strikers the Premiership
has ever seen.
Claudio Ranieri has some excellent options going forward but his defence
still doesn't really convince.
Everything considered this looks an appealing buy and surprisingly we can
punt at under 3.
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